Hanold's Weekly U.S. Natural Gas Tracker & Outlook

Research evidence excerpt

Hanold's Weekly U.S. Natural Gas Tracker & Outlook

ct storage levels in the fall to peak at 3.86 Tcf, which is 75 Bcf above the 10-year average,

but 100 Bcf below last year.

• The 12-month natural gas futures are $3.36/Mcf, down $0.16/Mcf from last week. This is below

RBC’s current next-12-month forecast of ~$4.05/Mcf. The longer-dated futures average is $3.67/Mcf

(2026-2029).

Macro Points

• Weekly Rig Trends. The Baker Hughes (BKR) weekly rig count as of last Friday was down 1 rig to 124

rigs. Appalachian rig count was flat at 36 rigs and unchanged from a year ago. The Haynesville rig

count was flat at 55 rigs and is up 20 rigs from last year.

• LNG News. 1) Elba Island LNG operator Kinder Morgan (KMI) returned two more upgraded

liquefaction trains to service at the Georgia export terminal after completing optimization work,

according to a recent FERC filing. The overall optimization project, authorized by FERC in 2024,

will increase Elba Island’s capacity from ~2.5 million Mt/a to ~2.9 million Mt/a. 2) Port Arthur LNG

developer Sempra Infrastructure placed into service a pipeline that will deliver feedgas to the export

facility as it approaches its targeted startup in 2027.

• Pipeline News. 1) Summit Midstream (SMC) finalized two new long-term firm transportation

agreements totaling 150 MMcf/d and entered a firm option agreement for an additional 200 MMcf/d

of capacity, bringing open season commitments for its proposed Double E natural gas pipeline system

expansion up to 250 MMcf/d and total contracted capacity to ~1.9 Bcf/d. 2) FERC approved a 300

MMcf/d TTC gas pipeline project to supply low nitrogen gas to Freeport LNG. The project targets a

3Q26 in-service date.

Natural Gas Equities

• Top gas-focused idea: Expand Energy (EXE).