IFT: FY26 result; Updating earnings estimates

Research evidence excerpt

IFT: FY26 result; Updating earnings estimates

Infratil Ltd

Target/Upside/Downside Scenarios Investment summary

Infratil (IFT) is an infrastructure investor with a strategy toInfratil Ltd

“deliver above average returns” (11–15% pa) by targeting

18 125 Weeks 19JAN24 - 10JUN26 macro ‘mega trends’. The portfolio is currently exposed to

17 investments in the sectors of Renewable Energy, Digital 16 TARGETTARGET 15.7515.75

15 CURRENTCURRENT 14.7614.76 Infrastructure, Social Infrastructure, and Airports. We view the

14 portfolio’s assets as being of high quality and value-adding,

12 though fully valued by the market at present.

9 Risks to rating and price target

8 We see the following as the primary risks around our

20m 15m investment rating and price target:

10m

5m

2024 2025 2026

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J Renewable energy uptake. IFT’s renewable energy (RE)

IFT NZ Rel. NEW ZEALAND CAP IDX MA 40 weeks platform is underpinned by the development and sale or

Source: Bloomberg and RBC Capital Markets estimates for Target operation of wind and solar generation assets and therefore

Valuation highly dependent on ongoing demand and under-supply of RE

assets. Operating earnings are leveraged to wholesale energyOur 12-month price target of NZ$15.75/share (rounded)

prices.reflects the more transactional skew of the portfolio by

employing a 50% short-term (fwd-SOTP) and 50% long-term Growth in data traffic. IFT’s upstream and downstream(fwd-NPV) valuation mix, rounded up to the nearest NZ25cps. digital infrastructure assets are leveraged to ongoing growthOur fwd-SOTP valuation of NZ$15.57/share is based on a 2yr in data consumption and the demand for high-end digitalforward EBITDA on global peer multiples. Our fwd-NPV of NZ infrastructure.