UK Housebuilders

Research evidence excerpt

UK Housebuilders

Housebuilders are particularly exposed to the price-sensitive middle market: a market where

developers are increasingly reliant on discounts and incentives to move stock. The continued

deterioration in the South East and East Anglia is particularly relevant given the geographic

weighting of many listed builders' land banks.

The rental market dynamics provide a partial offset. As the PRS shrinks due to landlord exits,

some demand will be pushed towards the for-sale market over time, particularly among

households that had been deferring a purchase decision. The improving twelve-month sales

expectations balance (+2%) may be capturing this expectation. The build-to-rent (BTR) segment

also stands to benefit from the structural supply squeeze in rental housing, and housebuilders

with BTR exposure or partnerships may find that avenue increasingly attractive, although BTR

investors will be seeking big discounts.

Near-term, however, the survey does not provide grounds for optimism on sales volumes.

Caution remains the appropriate posture.

Housing Demand

The demand picture in May could charitably be described as "no news is good news." New buyer

enquiries held at a net balance of -34%, identical to April and the first month since January

that this reading has not deteriorated further. Agreed sales were similarly anchored, with a net

balance of -37% versus -36% in April. In absolute terms, these are still very weak readings, but

the fact that the downward momentum has stalled is meaningful. For several months running,

the survey had been painting an increasingly grim picture; May at least offers the tentative

suggestion that a floor may be forming.

Looking forward, near-term sales expectations improved to -25% from -32% in April and -34%

the month before.