U.S. Data Pulse: Industrial Production Rose Slightly in May, Manufacturing Held Steady

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Data Pulse: Industrial Production Rose Slightly in May, Manufacturing Held Steady

UpdateM

Underlying Manufacturing Activity Remained Resilient in

May

Industrial production rose 0.1% m/m in May, below consensus expectations of 0.3%. April

was revised up to 0.9% from 0.7%. Mining boosted the headline, while underlying

manufacturing momentum remained broadly unchanged. Overall, the report suggests

underlying manufacturing activity held steady.

Underlying manufacturing activity

Nonauto manufacturing output was unchanged. Nonauto manufacturing activity has

improved meaningfully since late 2024, swinging from contraction to expansion. In May,

nonauto manufacturing output was up 1.7% y/y, compared to 1.4% in April, and 0.1% a year

earlier. On a 3m/3m annualized basis, nonauto manufacturing output continued to expand

at 3.4%, suggesting underlying factory momentum remained constructive. We do not see

signs of interruption in underlying manufacturing strength despite higher energy prices.

Manufacturing details

Within manufacturing, durable goods output rose 0.8%, , with gains broadly distributed

across sectors. Aerospace production rose 0.5%, while motor vehicle output rose 1.2%,

following April's strong growth of 3.3%. Nondurable manufacturing output fell 0.9%,

dragged by petroleum and coal products, which decreased 3.0%.

Industry breadth

Industry breadth improved materially. Around 58.6% of industries reported gains on the

month, up from averages of 56.8% in 2026Q1 and 48.4% in 2025Q4. Meanwhile, 60.7% of

industries reported gains relative to six months earlier, suggesting underlying activity

remained relatively broad-based.

Market-group details

On a market-group basis, consumer goods production fell 0.5% in May, while business

equipment output grew 0.6%.