UK Economics, Equity & Macro Strategy: Assessing the Trade-Offs

Research evidence excerpt

UK Economics, Equity & Macro Strategy: Assessing the Trade-Offs

Foundation

June 15, 2026 04:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MUK Economics, Equity & Macro Strategy | Europe Bruna Skarica

Chief UK Economist

Assessing the Trade-Offs Bruna.Skarica@morganstanley.comRegiane Yamanari +44 20 7425-9110

Equity Strategist

Regiane.Yamanari@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-4652

While we remain fundamentally constructive on the UK, the Marina Zavolock

next couple of months are likely to bring elevated policy EquityMarina.Zavolock@morganstanley.comStrategist +44 20 7425-2318

uncertainty. We take stock of the ongoing (fiscal) policy debates, Robert Pulleyn

Equity Analyst and Commodity Strategist

risks to issuance and the (limited, in our view) scope to boost Robert.Pulleyn@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-4388

public capex. Within this context we set out our views on FX and David S. Adams, CFA

Strategist

Rates, and for Equities, opportunities in Utilities and Banks. David.S.Adams@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-3518

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Economics | Fundamentally constructive: As was the case into the autumn of 2024

Andrew M Watrous

and 2025, we are likely entering a period of high policy uncertainty and related Strategist

market volatility in the UK. Alongside fiscal uncertainties, downside risks to growth Andrew.Watrous@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-5287

are building. Beyond the near term, we remain structurally constructive on the UK, Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

its fiscal consolidation trajectory, and changing economic fundamentals. This Fabio Bassanin, CFA

autumn, we see the likely (fiscal) outcome as a mix of October 2024 and November Fabio.Bassanin@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-1869

2025, with low risks of a repeat of the autumn of 2022.