Greek Banks: Overweight: macro backdrop still solid, valuation still cheap

Research evidence excerpt

Greek Banks: Overweight: macro backdrop still solid, valuation still cheap

Foundation

June 15, 2026 03:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MGreek Banks | Europe Noemi Peruch

Equity Analyst

Overweight: macro backdrop Noemi.Peruch@morganstanley.comChiara Zangarelli +44 20 7677-3163

Economist

Chiara.Zangarelli@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3644

still solid, valuation still cheap Matthew Nguyen

Equity Strategist

Matthew.Nguyen@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-0773

We initiate our coverage on Greek banks with a constructive Gulnara Saitkulova

tone on macro and strategy, preferring higher beta names EquityGulnara.Saitkulova@morganstanley.comAnalyst +44 20 7677-0313

trading at cheaper multiples. We are Overweight ALPHA,

Banks

EUROB and TPEIR and Equal-weight NBG and Credia. Europe

Industry View Attractive

Economics | Strong tailwinds ahead... The Greek growth outperformance story is

not over yet, in our view. We forecast GDP growth of 2.1%Y in 2026 and 2.0%Y in

2027, where domestic demand accounts for the entirety of growth, supported by

disposable income growing at a solid pace. We expect investment growth at c5% p.a.

in 2026-27, supported by public investment, spending of European funds, and

foreign direct investments. Despite expansionary fiscal measures, we expect

Greece’s primary surpluses to remain high, and debt-to-GDP ratio at 131.5% by 2027.

… supporting upside risk for the banks: The strong macro backdrop allows for i)

sustained corporate loan growth in the short and mid-term, while mortgage lending

remains constrained by supply shortages in the housing market, ii) 3-4% deposit

growth, iii) fee growth driven by loan volumes and higher AM and insurance

penetration, iv) downward trend of CoR, as the labour market remains tight, v)