Another US Tariff Storm Is Brewing

Research evidence excerpt

Another US Tariff Storm Is Brewing

June 11, 2026 | 09:43 ET~

BMO Global Commodities Research

Another US Tariff Storm Is Brewing BMO Global Commodities Research

George Heppel Analyst

george.heppel@bmo.com +44 (0)20 7664 8106

Helen Amos Analyst

Bottom Line: helen.amos@bmo.com +44 (0)20 7664 8180

Despite representing arguably the most significant change to the US tariff regime Alona Yunda Senior Associate

since Liberation Day, the Section 301 investigations into "Forced Labor Practices" and alona.yunda@bmo.com +44 (0) 789 479 7518

"Structural Excess Capacity" currently ongoing in Washington have caught limited market Abigail Knight Senior Associate

attention. In this report, we discuss the Trump administration's clear tariff strategy pivot abigail.knight@bmo.com +44 (0)20 7246 5448

since the Supreme Court tariff decision in February. We see a very strong chance that Legal Entity: BMO Capital Markets Limited

a quasi-universal tariff of ~20-25% is likely to emerge in the USA in the second half

of 2026 as a result of the Section 301 investigations, something which is not currently

on many analysts' radar. The result could be a return to the commodity frontloading

market dynamics seen in the run-up to Liberation Day, as well as prompting stagflation

and debasement concerns, something, which could lift gold beyond its near-term

headwinds.

Key Points

The US tariff story so far. In April last year, President Trump declared that foreign

trade and economic practices had created a national emergency, allowing him to invoke

the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to enforce a wide-ranging

tariff regime in what is now known as "Liberation Day." IEEPA was the primary legal

justification for the country-specific tariff regime last year until the Supreme Court ruled