A.M. Notes

Research evidence excerpt

A.M. Notes

June 11, 2026

Economic Research

NORTH AMERICA — SAL GUATIERI

Douglas Porter Chief Economist

Despite increased military attacks by both the U.S. and Iran yesterday, which threaten douglas.porter@bmo.com (416) 359-4887

to derail the current “ceasefire”, U.S. oil prices are down 1% to $89 a barrel and equity Sal Guatieri Senior Economist

futures point to sizable gains at the open (0.7% for S&P 500 and 1.2% for Nasdaq). The sal.guatieri@bmo.com (416) 359-5295

U.S. says it has halted the strikes for now, but the President warned Iran of renewed Jennifer Lee Senior Economist

attacks if it doesn’t sign a peace deal. Helping to cap oil prices: The U.S. says it is jennifer.lee@bmo.com (416) 359-4092

guiding some ships though the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, China is importing about 3 Legal Entity: BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.

million barrels per day less than before the Iran conflict, while the U.S. is exporting

around 1 million barrels more.

Following yesterday’s less-than-feared CPI report, which showed the core rate

simmering down to a 0.2% rate in May from 0.4% in April and suggesting higher oil

prices were not yet spreading through the economy, today’s producer price release will

likely confirm that cost pressures are still burbling in the pipeline. Producer prices are

expected to spike 0.7% in May (Bloomberg consensus same), hauling the yearly rate up

to 6.4%, the highest since 2022. And, this isn’t just an energy issue, as core producer

prices could jump 0.6% (consensus 0.5%), lifting the annual rate to 5.5%. The report

will help guide estimates of core PCE prices.

Other U.S. data releases include weekly jobless claims (8:30, consensus sees a 5k

decline to 220k), the Quarterly Services Survey for Q1 (10:00), and the Fed’s Flow of

Funds Accounts for Q1 (noon).