BMO Metals Brief

Research evidence excerpt

BMO Metals Brief

June 11, 2026

Global Commodities

BMO Metals Brief Global Commodities

Helen Amos Analyst

helen.amos@bmo.com +44 (0)20 7664 8180

 Copper tariffs- What Happens If…? We have published a new note on copper tariffs, laying out

what we think might happen to CME-LME spreads, inventories, and price levels in the immediate George Heppel Analyst

aftermath under different scenarios for the June 30 update. Expectations of a phased tariff on george.heppel@bmo.com +44 (0)20 7664 8106

refined copper being confirmed have been rising as the deadline for the U.S. Secretary of

Alona Yunda Senior Associate Commerce to update the President approaches. Even in the most "bearish" outcomes we can

conceive, which would involve the administration deciding to apply tariffs immediately, rather alona.yunda@bmo.com +44 (0)20 7664 8122

than the Jan-27 timeframe previously advised, or, categorically ruling them out, we see LME price Walid Hasanzadeh Associate

pullbacks being bought very quickly by China with the dip-buying price point grinding ever walid.hasanzadeh@bmo.com +44 (0)20 7872 1565

higher, likely now ~$13k/t. Outside a macro-driven demand shock, we see copper prices

touching new highs over the summer. Meanwhile, investors are raising questions over how much Legal Entity: BMO Capital Markets Limited

more metal New Orleans CME warehouses may be able to receive, with reports they are at

capacity; this is the preferred location for traders who are participating in the arb trade to hold LME Index (LMEX)

metal given proximity to LME warehouses. 6,100

6,000

 Aluminium backwardation shrinks. The sell-off in metals since last Friday has also relieved some 5,900

of the tightness in the prompt end of the aluminium market, with the LME cash-to-3M spread 5,800

5,700