UK Spotlight Makerfield Matters: Sector and Stock Implications of the UK’s Shifting Political Landscape

Research evidence excerpt

UK Spotlight Makerfield Matters: Sector and Stock Implications of the UK’s Shifting Political Landscape

even greater focus on affordable homes, and

potentially increasing the level of affordable homes requirement to 50%. This was a risk

heading into the recent election in 2024 that was subsequently dialled back. We would

highlight that in London, where the affordability criteria were raised, the capital has since had

to reduce these measures to incentivize building. (ii) A negative view on ‘Right to Buy’ which

he has labelled a disaster. (iii) Potential changes to council taxes and stamp duty with Andy

Burnham favouring a land value tax. (iv) A clear focus on the rental market, where he has

previously called for a freeze on private sector rents, which could potentially impact

investment in the PRS market. In terms of stock-specific risk, we would highlight Vistry

(UW): Andy Burnham has previously called for rent freezes, and has expressed a desire to

lower rents in the UK, which could affect Vistry’s volumes if it impacts the confidence of

Vistry’s PRS clients and their willingness to invest in new contracts.

General Retail (Georgina Johanan)

For UK General Retailers, there are several indicated policies to consider: (i) The net impact

on demand from a potential tailwind to disposable income in the lower income demographics

(new 10% starting tax rate for low earners and an increase in the personal allowance for

income tax), vs a headwind for higher income consumers (increase in the top rate of income

tax and higher taxes on more expensive homes). Changes to property taxes could also impact

housing-market mobility/ transaction levels and perceived household wealth, with potential

implications for big-ticket and home-related spend; (ii) Higher taxes on online warehouses