Stocktake Australian Consumer Primer for 15 June 2026 – Sigma/Boots, Dollarama/Reject Shop, Endeavour Group, Iran Conflict

Research evidence excerpt

Stocktake Australian Consumer Primer for 15 June 2026 – Sigma/Boots, Dollarama/Reject Shop, Endeavour Group, Iran Conflict

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

15 June 2026

Stocktake

Australian Consumer Primer for 15 June 2026 – Sigma/

Boots, Dollarama/Reject Shop, Endeavour Group, Iran

Conflict

ACKey themes we are exploring today: AustralianBryan RaymondConsumer Sector

(61-2) 9003-6750

• Iran peace deal to be signed on 19 June. After many failed attempts at ending bryan.raymond@jpmorgan.com

the US/Iran war, signs are pointing to an end to the conflict and a reopening of Christina Kim

(61-2) 9003-7082

the Hormuz Strait. This is putting downward pressure on oil prices and should christina.kim@jpmorgan.com

lead to fuel price relief. We note, however, that the transmission mechanism J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

from a reopened strait and normalised oil and refining market conditions will

take time to play out. Regional refining margins will likely remain high for a

number of months as supply and demand will take time to align. If this peace

deal is final and the US/Iran conflict is over, we expect discretionary retailers

to continue to outperform, as cost of living pressures will ease on an eventual

normalisation in fuel prices, and less pressure on the RBA. Indeed, the futures

market is now only pricing 10bps or less than half a rate hike by December.

Conversely, we see refiners and supermarkets as underperformers through this

reopening trade. The peak in grocery inflation may be lower, which we

compare against elevated wage growth, which the FWC set two weeks ago with

respect to current inflation, rather than inflation expectations.

• Sigma walks away from Boots transaction. Less than a week after Sigma