Volvo-Solid CMD, cold reception, up to Buy-06/11/2026

Research evidence excerpt

Volvo-Solid CMD, cold reception, up to Buy-06/11/2026

Volvo

RECOMMENDATION CHANGE | 11 JUN 2026

Solid CMD, cold reception, up to Buy Target price (SEK) 350

Volvo held its CMD in Eskilstuna on 10 June. The event was structured Share price (SEK) 307

as a strategy and segment deep-dive. No new group financial targets

were introduced. Shares traded down ~4% on the day on cost inflation

commentary and the absence of a CE structural announcement. We view

the selloff as an overreaction and upgrade to Buy (from Hold), reiterating

our TP of SEK 350.

Forecast changes

An educational CMD that reinforced a position of structural strength % 2026e 2027e 2028e

Consistent with prior CMDs, the event was educational rather than Revenues - - -

announcement-packed, with the >10% operating margin target reconfirmed. The EBITDA - - -

day centered on the idea that a decade of work has structurally raised the through- EBIT adj - - -

cycle margin profile and reduced cyclicality, and that the group can now convert

EPS reported - - -that platform into above-market growth. The European business stood out as proof

of the model at full potential, with all-time high Truck market share, strong EPS adj - - -

profitability and a robust service base. R&D peaked in 2024 and CAPEX in 2025, Source: Pareto Securities

both now flat/declining, while the Transformational Ventures drag was revised

down to 100-150bps from 150-200bps. Ticker VOLVb.ST, VOLVB SS

Sector Industrials

Growth opportunities

Shares fully diluted (m) 2,033.0

The clearest near-term driver is North America, where the combined Mack and Market cap (SEKm) 624,131

Volvo share ambition of 25% by 2030 was reiterated against 18.6% YTD May

Net debt (SEKm) -65,390

2026. The main opportunity is long-haul, 43% of the US/Canada HD market but