Norsk Hydro-Up against the ceiling – Down to Hold-06/11/2026

Research evidence excerpt

Norsk Hydro-Up against the ceiling – Down to Hold-06/11/2026

Norsk Hydro

QUARTERLY PREVIEW | 11 JUN 2026

Up against the ceiling – Down to Hold Target price (NOK) 117

Continued inventory draws from already thin levels have left spot prices Share price (NOK) 111

and premiums surging, with even the ongoing breach of the Chinese

production cap insuf cient to prevent a ~2mt de cit in 2026. In a shaky

cyclical environment, global grid expansion and a handful of other

structural demand drivers lend support to a prolonged de cit – though

this looks largely discounted to us, with shares already reflecting an

average aluminium price of USD ~3,200/t through 2030. Pegging our Forecast changes

NOK 117 TP (116) to 6x 2028e EBITDA, we see the shares as fully priced % 2026e 2027e 2028e

for now and downgrade NHY to Hold (Buy). Revenues 1 1 1

EBITDA 5 4 3

Aluminium Metal the key earnings driver in Q2 (and 2026e) EBIT adj 8 6 4

We model Q2 EBITDA of NOK 9bn versus consensus at NOK 8.8bn, with a 12% EPS reported 9 7 5

q/q rise in LME prices and a 41% jump in European premiums the two key drivers. EPS adj 9 7 5

Alumina re<nery ramp-ups (predominantly in China) are <rmly outpacing the Source: Pareto Securities

recent shrinking of the smelter demand base (Middle East), with a ~4mt 2026e

surplus continuing to pose downside risk to the current depressed price level of

USD ~305/t. We lower our Q3–Q4'26 estimates to USD 305–315/t. The Ticker NHY.OL, NHY NO

corresponding margin expansion for primary aluminum smelters has spurred an Sector Metals & Mining

acceleration of the Indonesian expansion projects and paved the way for a Shares fully diluted (m) 1,965.0

'breach' of China's 45mt production cap, with exports surging ~15-20% y/y in Market cap (NOKm) 218,115

recent months.