MTU Aero Engines (AO) | Buy | Engine makers aftermarket trends are still strong despite airlines headwinds

Research evidence excerpt

MTU Aero Engines (AO) | Buy | Engine makers aftermarket trends are still strong despite airlines headwinds

Connecting the dots

Release date: 15 June 2026

Aymeric Poulain

Head of Aerospace & Defence

+41 43 333 6624

apoulain@keplercheuvreux.com

BuyMTU Aero Engines

Germany | Aerospace & defence MCap: EUR17.0bn

Target Price: EUR365.00 Bloomberg: MTX GR Reuters: MTXGn.DE

Current Price: EUR312.00 Free float 100%

Up/downside: 17.0% Avg. daily volume (EURm) 134.0

YTD abs performance -12.2% Market data: 12 June 2026

52-week high/low (EUR) 402.00/273.10

Engine makers aftermarket trends are still strong despite airlines

headwinds

Key points:

MTU Aero performed better than expected in Q1 and, like its peers, is confident in meeting its full-year guidance even as traffic

data has decelerated on the back of Middle Eastern tensions and higher oil price concerns.

The stock remains cheap and should be seen as one of the key tactical beneficiaries of a relief rally should the Strait of Hormuz

reopens.

Oil shock & Airlines outlook context

MTU reported better-than-expected margins and FCF in Q1. This did not change the guidance, which had to remain prudent in light of

the more "uncertain" environment created by the blockade of the Hormuz Strait and its implications for energy prices and the world

economy.

Fast forward, the Iran war remains the focus of the aviation industry, and any news on a reopening could produce a relief rally. IATA

revised its projection for worldwide passenger traffic data from 5% to 2%. Fuel prices have risen by c.70% since the war started and could

now average 31% of airlines', revenues vs 25% typical averages. With higher ticket prices, the industry should remain profitable but with

EBIT down YOY to USD 48bn vs USD 76bn last year or a 3% EBIT margin cut.