Boliden (1K) | Hold | Mixed results expected in Q2 2026 (preview)

Research evidence excerpt

Boliden (1K) | Hold | Mixed results expected in Q2 2026 (preview)

#EarningsPreview #TPchange

Release date: 15 June 2026

Company research

ESG profile HoldBoliden

Sweden | Metals & mining Beta Profile: MCap: SEK151.4bn

Target Price: SEK603.00 (510.00) Change in TP: 18.2 % Bloomberg: BOL SS Reuters: BOL.ST

Current Price: SEK533.60 Change in Sales: 28.6% 26E/17.5% 27E Free float 100%

Up/downside: 13.0% Change in Adj EBIT: 18.6% 26E/14.7% 27E Avg. daily volume (SEKm) 1,462.8

YTD abs performance 3.6% Market data: 12 June 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: 26.5% 26E/13.9% 27E

52-week high/low (SEK) 722.60/283.90

Mixed results expected in Q2 2026 (preview) Price performance

Why this report?

We expect a mixed Q2 2026. Adjusted EBIT should come in above consensus,

supported by favourable metal prices and likely triggering upward estimate

revisions. However, visibility on Garpenberg remains limited, with a probable

operating loss, while the Odda ramp-up could prove more challenging than

expected. In addition, earnings should benefit from a technical tailwind

within “Other”. While reported results are likely to be solid, they will be

driven more by external factors than by operational execution. Despite

significantly raising our forecasts following a comprehensive model overhaul,

we believe it is still too early to turn constructive on the stock. We therefore

reiterate our Hold rating and raise our target price to SEK 603.

Key findings FY to 31/12 (SEK) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

We expect Q2 2026 adjusted EBIT of SEK 3,142m, 3% above the latest Infront Sales 117,547 125,659 123,674

consensus of SEK 3,038m (12 May 2026). EBITDA adj. 26,753 30,996 31,850

EBIT adj. 15,937 20,695 21,396 Quarter-on-quarter, earnings should decline, primarily reflecting the disruption at Net profit adj.