US-Iran MOU: Are We Finally Done This Time?

Research evidence excerpt

US-Iran MOU: Are We Finally Done This Time?

take this seriously. Despite the track record of past promises of imminent deals, it does seem like

we may finally have gotten there. Although Iranian media denied that an MOU is fully approved, reports indicate a "high

chance" that it ultimately will be approved, and we read those initial denials to be in the spirit of "nothing is final until

everything is final" rather than truly calling this fake news. In the hours since the news broke, Trump has gotten more

specific on timeline, indicating in remarks this afternoon that "we're going to be, subject to finalization of documents,

which should get done over the next few days, probably [having] a signing, maybe in Europe." And as noted below, it

does line up with reports about ongoing diplomatic activity, and with the military restraint in this week's fighting.

4. Assuming this holds up, it would represent US acceptance of the latest Iranian offer, which likely entails some

level of flexibility on the red lines Trump has articulated throughout this process. Multiple reports this week from

both US and regional media indicate that Qatari mediators had landed on updated text for a deal proposal that they

believed the US would accept. If Trump received that offer and accepted it, it's plausible that we could now have a done

deal. But this would be an Iranian offer that includes an updated mechanism for unfreezing assets (per Axios), so either

Trump relaxed his opposition to up-front asset unfreezing, or Iran caved. Our recent skepticism about the prospects for

a near-term deal (contra our optimism two weeks ago) was based on an assessment that Trump no longer seemed

inclined toward this kind of flexibility on his red lines—he seemed to have backed away from a largely-done deal in