Heavy On Data But Light On Surprises - ADA'ing Our Final Thoughts Post The Conference

Research evidence excerpt

Heavy On Data But Light On Surprises - ADA'ing Our Final Thoughts Post The Conference

s competing across different price points and geographies. But, it is likely to eventually consolidate around

a few dominant platforms. Importantly, penetration becomes near-universal over time as the market ultimately

rewards platform scale; the company that owns prescriber relationships, patient support infrastructure, and the

formulary position wins, independent of whether any individual asset is meaningfully superior.

●The car: On another hand, ZEAL, might favor the automobile industry analogy, which argues the market will not

converge but instead permanently fragment because what patients want from treatment is not uniform. Peak

efficacy becomes one input among many rather than the primary differentiator, and patients will prioritize the

"journey," or quality of the treatment experience, and getting to the end zone over time.

Despite subpar efficacy and tolerability, ZEAL and BI's survodutide may find an upper hand in pricing. We think it

might be worth calling out that Boehringer Ingelheim (BI), as a private company, can operate without the capital market

constraints that govern every major public competitor in this space. LLY and NOVOB face the immediate consequences

of margin compression and shareholder pressure. BI's priority, however, is likely its cash flow. And in a rapidly growing

market, long-term cash flow can be upheld by volume, even at prices that would be unfavorable for a public company.

This creates a pricing concern for the class as a whole, in our view.

●Price as a differentiator: If BI, which holds the exclusive rights to commercialize survodutide globally, enters the