Systematic Flows Monitor: CTA equity longs pare back and Treasuries short-covering risks rise

Research evidence excerpt

Systematic Flows Monitor: CTA equity longs pare back and Treasuries short-covering risks rise

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Systematic Flows Monitor

CTA equity longs pare back and Treasuries

short-covering risks rise

CTA equity unwinds continue as positioning remains long 12 June 2026

As we noted last week, further downside in equities risked triggering additional CTA Equity Derivatives

unwinds, and Wednesday’s selloff appears to have done just that. Our models indicate Global

that more aggressive stop-loss frameworks likely pared S&P 500 longs, while NASDAQ-

100 positioning saw further reductions from models with medium-tier stop thresholds.

Within NDX, the remaining long base now appears concentrated among the least risk-

sensitive models, whereas S&P positioning still reflects a mix of medium- and low-

sensitivity longs. Importantly, the SG CTA Index finished positive on Thursday as equities

rebounded, consistent with CTAs still retaining long exposure to major US equity

benchmarks. Looking ahead, after accounting for Friday’s rebound, another ~3% decline Table of Contents

in the S&P 500 and ~5% in the NASDAQ-100 could trigger additional systematic selling.

Elsewhere, CTA positioning in the Russell 2000 and Nikkei remains elevated, while Systematic Equity Flows Snapshot 2

Europe should continue seeing incremental buying as price trends strengthen. SPX Option Gamma Positioning 3

Trend Following (CTA) Model 4

Stretched CTA US Tsy shorts at risk entering Fed week Leveraged and Inverse ETFs 14

CTA positioning in US Treasury futures remains short, with the largest exposure Risk Parity Model 16

concentrated in shorter-duration futures. Yields declined this week bringing buy to cover S&P 500 Equity Vol Control 16

triggers closer.