Q1/F27 Results: Back on Track

Research evidence excerpt

Q1/F27 Results: Back on Track

TD Cowen Dollarama Inc.

Global Research June 11, 2026

AT A GLANCE

Our Investment Thesis Forthcoming Catalysts

We are increasingly confident that Canadian operations can achieve stated targets as growth ■ Successful entry/expansion in Mexico/

normalizes from inflation-driven highs. Dollarcity LATAM’s growth outlook remains exceptional, Australia

and we see a high probability of success in Mexico and TRS. While Australia integration ■ Continued outsized growth for Dollarcity

headwinds drive our primary EPS revision, the long-term opportunity remains attractive. We ■ "Soft landing" its Canadian operations

view this as a timing issue rather than a deterioration in value. Despite limited near-term ■ Margin expansion due to price stability

catalysts, we see compelling mid-term upside. Reflecting our positive view on the international and leveraging of its industry-leading cost

portability of the Dollarama business model, we maintain our BUY rating and target price of structure

$227, supported by our DCF analysis. ■ Shift in strategy from competitors

exiting at Dollarama's price point, or the

introduction of new price points

Base Case Assumptions Upside Scenario Downside Scenario

■ F2027E/F2028E SSSG to remain within its ■ F27E/F28E sales increase in HSD-LDD ■ F27E/F28E sales increase LSDs y/y on

historical average range. range y/y on above-average SSSG/store below-average SSSG/store openings

■ Modest operating leverage from volume/ openings. ■ Higher-than-expected customer attrition/

pricing/scale/Dollarcity equity income ■ Outsized operating leverage from deflationary pressure on pricing

growth. accelerated penetration with a broader ■ Geopolitical risk in LATAM/Mexico weighs