Headwinds, but Momentum in Natural & Productivity Gains Keeping Rig on Track

Research evidence excerpt

Headwinds, but Momentum in Natural & Productivity Gains Keeping Rig on Track

USA | Food Retail

United Natural Foods EquityJuneResearch9, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEHeadwinds, but Momentum in Natural &

RATING HOLDProductivity Gains Keeping Rig on Track

PRICE $51.64^

F3Q EBITDA & EPS was largely inline on slightly lower than expected sales,

w/higher GM% and lower OpEx the offsets, reflecting the impact of network PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $48.00 ($40.00) | -7%

optimization (-450bps sales headwind, but benefiting from productivity/ 52W HIGH-LOW $57.02 - $20.78

efficiency gains). F26 guide was narrowed (unch at midpoint) and likely reflects FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 94.0% | 29.47

some conservatism re: the external environment (i.e. diesel prices) while MARKET CAP $3.3B

strategic initiatives continue to take shape. We trim our ests slightly and Reit TICKER UNFI ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

Hold. noted.

F3Q sales miss but midpoint of F26 guide reiterated. Sales of $7.7b was a touch below Cons FY (Jul) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

$7.8b as upside in the natural segment ($4.43b vs Cons $4.32b) was offset by conventional ($3.14b 2026 2027 2026 2027

vs Cons $3.20b) and retail (SSS -4%). The former impacted by network optimization (450bps EBITDA NM NM NM NM

headwind in F3Q), while the latter continued to reflect consumer headwinds (SNAP reduction, value

EPS -4% -9% NA NA

emphasis). Importantly, underlying trends in natural continued to grow solidly, despite a modest

200bps headwind as it winds down some short term project work. F26 sales guide was narrowed

2026 ($) Q1A Q2A Q3A Q4 FY

to $31.1b-31.3b from $31.0-31.4b, or unchanged at the midpoint. We model $31.2b vs $31.3b

EPS 0.56 0.62 0.77 0.60 2.55

previously.

PREV 0.80 0.69 2.67

Adj. EBITDA largely inline.