Energy Macro Monthly - Buffer Ticking

Research evidence excerpt

Energy Macro Monthly - Buffer Ticking

Global | Energy EquityJuneResearch9, 2026

Crude balances breakdown mmb/dEnergy Macro Monthly - Buffer Ticking

16.0

Amid fast-shifting US-Iran dynamics, fundamentals remain in focus. April’s 14.012.0

disruptions were largely absorbed by buffers, but these are now fading. 10.08.0

6.0

4.0If the conflict persists, tightening balances are likely despite ongoing SPR 2.0

releases, reinforcing structural crude tightness (Ex. 1; JEFe S/D - Ex. 6). -2.00.0

Demand remains the key wildcard, with any weakness - so far - hard to -4.0 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26

ME run cuts ROW run cuts OOWgauge. Still, refining margins have remained solid m/m, alongside natural

gas prices as well. . SPR Pre-conflict length Production loss

Source: Energy Aspects, Jefferies

Length has been cushioning the shock, but the buffer is rolling (Ex. 1). In April, supply

disruptions were largely absorbed by ~6 mmb/d of refinery run cuts, ~2 mmb/d of SPR

drawdowns, and ~4 mmb/d of pre-conflict length - the oversupply forecasted pre-conflict

(based on EA data). In the coming months, these offsets are set to fade and being more than

offset by production cuts, and recovering oil-on-water inventory (longer haul Atlantic Basin

flows to East of Suez replacing ME barrels & US SPR release), increasing forward pressure on

the market.

Crude export offsets. As per IEA, April net crude export losses (~6.6 mmb/d vs. Feb-26) were

driven by a sharp decline in Gulf exports (~10.2 mmb/d), partly offset by higher exports mainly

from the US, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Venezuela (+3.5 mmb/d vs Feb-26), and largely absorbed

by lower Asian imports (Ex. 19). However, upstream supply has not ramped at the same pace

(IEA data Apr vs Feb - US +0.52mmb/d, Kazakhstan +0.4mmb/d, Russia +0.16mmb/d, and