The Plumber Sits Out Again: FY3/27 Switch2 Holiday Has a Mario-Shaped Hole

Research evidence excerpt

The Plumber Sits Out Again: FY3/27 Switch2 Holiday Has a Mario-Shaped Hole

Japan | Interactive Entertainment

Nintendo Co. Ltd. EquityJuneResearch9, 2026

FLASH NOTEThe Plumber Sits Out Again: FY3/27 Switch2

RATING BUYHoliday Has a Mario-Shaped Hole

PRICE ¥7,640^

Today's Nintendo Direct confirmed what credible leakers had flagged: no

mainline 3D Mario in 2026. The absence is commercially meaningful — a PRICE TARGET | % TO PT ¥21,260 | +178%

2nd holiday without highest-attach franchise caps s/w upside. The Direct 52W HIGH-LOW ¥14,795 - ¥6,849

was not without merit (Zelda: OoT Remake confirmed, strong 3P slate). But FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 91.6% | 561.24

meaningful (well above guide) FY3/27 OP growth will be harder to achieve MARKET CAP ¥8.9T | $55.9B

without Mario as the tent-pole. FY3/28 sets up as a more powerful year. TICKER 7974 JP ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Today's June 9 Direct — was headlined by 3P announcements and a few 1P surprises,

RATING BUY

including the first official tease of a remake of The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time (OoT). The 1P

slate for the holiday window includes the OoT Remake (2026, no specific date given), Rhythm TICKER NTDOY

Heaven Groove (July 2), and a Star Fox title already confirmed ahead of the showcase. The PRICE $12.23^

3P slate is substantive: Kingdom Hearts 4 (KH4) confirmed day-one on Switch 2, alongside PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $35.00 | +186%

Dragon's Dogma 2 (Oct9), Stellar Blade 2 (Aug), and Rayman Legends Retold (Oct1). A new 3D

Mario game was not expected at this showcase, with a 2027 release target the cited reason.

This is confirmed — no teaser, no placeholder reveal.

Context & Significance: Switch 2 reached c. 20m units as of Mar31, 2026 — the fastest-selling

console of all time, with c.