US-China Tech Rivalry: Tracking National Power Industries & Companies

Research evidence excerpt

US-China Tech Rivalry: Tracking National Power Industries & Companies

Global | Washington Strategy June 9, 2026

Exhibit 1 - Defence is insulated by federalUS-China Tech Rivalry: Tracking National Power

Industries & Companies demand.

As we have covered, China’s tech strength has grown from an underappreciated

story to consensus view. We hosted a series of sessions with the Information .Source: Ostertag, U.S. National Power Industries Are at Risk

(ITIF, Nov 2025)

Technology & Innovation Foundation (ITIF) to dive deeper. KTs 1) China has

overtaken US in R&D spend ($1trn in PPP). 2) China's strategy is designed to Exhibit 2 - Gross R&D Expenditure PPP

Adjusted ($bn)

gain market share in advanced industries. 3) Dual-use & enabling industries are

areas of greatest risk. 4) Sudden earnings risks present in industrial sectors.

1) National Power Industries — Per ITIF, National Power Industries represent a narrow but critical

subset of the economy (~22% of all NAICS industries) that determines technological leadership,

industrial competitiveness, and downstream earnings power for companies. They are explicitly .

defined as industries in which the loss of domestic or allied capability creates a dependency Source:(ITIF, MayOstertag,2026) China Overtakes the U.S. in R&D Investment

that cannot be easily substituted, particularly in intermediate goods and capital equipment supply

chains. The framework identifies 4 tiers:

Defense (~0.5% of sectors) — Missiles, military aircraft, tanks, and ammunition are largely•

insulated and non-investable from a competitive standpoint

Dual-use (~13.5%) — Intermediate goods, such as Semis, pharma, aerospace, telecom,•

advanced chemicals, and machine tools. Here, value capture and margin pressure are