Brewing the Next Growth Leg—Beyond Coffee, Beyond China: Initiate at Buy

Research evidence excerpt

Brewing the Next Growth Leg—Beyond Coffee, Beyond China: Initiate at Buy

Luckin Coffee Inc. (LKNCY)

Equity Research

June 9, 2026

Executive summary

Luckin Coffee is well-positioned as a key beneficiary of China’s structurally underpenetrated

coffee market, supported by its digital-first operating model, strong execution at scale, and proven

product innovation capabilities. As the largest coffee chain in China by store count and GMV,

Luckin has established a leading market position and continues to benefit from favorable industry

dynamics, including rising coffee penetration, urbanization, and evolving consumer preferences.

We initiate with a Buy rating and PT of USD43.6/ADS.

China’s coffee market remains at an early stage of development, with significant headroom for

growth. Per capita consumption is approximately 0.26kg versus the global average of 1.25kg,

underscoring meaningful upside as coffee shifts from an occasional indulgence to a daily routine.

Structural drivers—urbanization, rising disposable income, and lifestyle upgrades—are expected to

support high-teens growth in the freshly made coffee segment (c.17% CAGR over 2025–2028F).

As the market matures, growth should increasingly be driven by higher consumption frequency,

premiumization, and broader consumption occasions.

Luckin’s competitive moat is anchored in its “tech + retail” model, with digitalization embedded

across the customer journey. Its app-based ecosystem captures granular user data, enabling

real-time insights into consumer behavior, pricing sensitivity, and product preferences. This data

advantage supports efficient product development and targeted marketing, delivering strong

engagement and consistently high new product success rates.

Store expansion remains a core growth driver.