Copper Supply disruptions and cost pressures drive our forecasts higher

Research evidence excerpt

Copper Supply disruptions and cost pressures drive our forecasts higher

11 June 2026

Equities & Commodities

Global Copper

Supply disruptions and cost pressures drive our

forecasts higher

◆ Copper prices are at an elevated level, supported by resilient Jonathan Brandt, CFA

demand and supply disruptions Analyst, GEMs ex-Asia Metals & Mining, Pulp & Paper HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

jon.brandt@us.hsbc.com

◆ Input inflation is lifting costs; aluminum scarcity is benefiting +1 212 525 4499

demand, while potential US tariffs add volatility Shilan Modi*, CFA

Analyst, Metals & Mining

HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, DIFC

◆ We raise our average copper price forecasts for 2026-28e by shilan.modi@hsbc.com

3-7%; 2029-30e and LT forecasts unchanged +971 564 1212 04

Howard Lau*, CFA

Head of China Materials Equity Research

Copper prices strengthening: Copper prices surged to record levels in early May The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited howard.h.b.lau@hsbc.com.hk

2026, before easing on broader risk-off sentiment. Even after the pullback, prices +852 2996 6625

remain elevated, supported by resilient end-demand, persistent supply disruptions, Ishan Jain*

and renewed uncertainty around potential US trade measures. Analyst, Metals & Mining, Pulp & Paper HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited

ishanjain@hsbc.co.in

Supply disruptions remain key; inflation is lifting the cost curve: Disruptions +91 80 4550 3767

continue to prevail, with notable issues across major assets (including Grasberg, Gustavo Hwang*, CFA

Kamoa-Kakula, etc) and weaker Chilean output, which is limiting supply growth. Analyst, GEMs ex-Asia Metals & Mining, Pulp & Paper

Banco HSBC S.A.

Potential supply relief from Cobre Panamá does not appear imminent given mass gustavo.hwang@hsbc.com