UK Housing Market Chartbook (Jun) Living with uncertainty

Research evidence excerpt

UK Housing Market Chartbook (Jun) Living with uncertainty

Economics

United KingdomUK Housing Market Chartbook (Jun)

Living with uncertainty

Uncertainty is the new normal (MPC) might sympathise with that view. But from the anecdotal Elizabeth Martins

evidence from the RICS survey, a lot of respondents cite tougher Senior Economist, UKIt has now been over 100 days since the start of the Middle East

conditions, including cost of living pressures, and a soft jobs market HSBC Bank plcconflict, and its sudden impact on UK swap rates and housing market liz.martins@hsbc.com

does not help either. We also note that, so far at least, existing +44 20 7991 2170sentiment. Although this month’s Housing Market Chartbook paints a

mortgage holders are not considering paying off lump sums, as was the Emma Wilkspicture of subdued demand and activity, it no longer appears to be

case in 2022, when rates sharply increased (chart 32). This supports UK Economistgetting worse (at least for now). Most of the RICs indices (charts 6-10) HSBC Bank plc

the view that households may have less flexibility than in 2022, when emma.wilks@hsbc.comare little changed compared with last month, with the headline index +44 20 3268 5948

savings were higher in the wake of the pandemic and many peoplesteady at -35 (albeit the joint lowest reading, along with last month,

were changing jobs and securing above-inflation pay rises.since November 2023). Issuer of report:

Both main house price indices, Halifax and Nationwide, declined in BoE meeting next week should give some clues HSBC Bank plc

May, but both remain within their recent range (0-2%) in y-o-y terms Of course, swap rates reflect the market’s expectations for what the 11 June 2026

(charts 1 and 2).