ECB Meeting (Jun) Hike delivered, more to come?

Research evidence excerpt

ECB Meeting (Jun) Hike delivered, more to come?

11 June 2026

ECB Meeting (Jun) Economics

Hike delivered, more to come?

◆ As universally expected, the ECB raised the deposit rate to 2.25% Chris Hare

Senior Economist, Eurozone,

◆ We saw mildly hawkish signals, including a higher core inflation forecast and a UKHSBCandBankIrelandplc

view expressed by Christine Lagarde of broadening inflation pressures… chris.hare@hsbc.com +44 20 7991 2995

◆ …consistent with our expectation of two further rate hikes this year, but our Simon Wells

Chief European Economist

base case is for a policy reversal next year HSBC Bank plc

simon.wells@hsbcib.com

+44 20 7991 6718

Facts

Hike delivered, as expected

In a surprise to virtually nobody, the ECB raised interest rates at the 11 June meeting, with the deposit

rate increasing from 2.00 to 2.25% – the 25bp hike was priced in with a market-implied probability of 100%

(Bloomberg, 11 July).

In terms of the motivation for the rate rise, the policy statement said that “the war in the Middle East is

generating inflation pressures, and the decision to raise rates is robust across a range of scenarios

mapping out how the shock might evolve and affect the medium-term outlook for the euro area”.

Still data-dependent, but signals may point to further hikes

The ECB did not change its position that it would follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting

approach to policy rates. In other words, there was no clear steer on the extent and timing of any future

rate rises (in particular, there was no explicit steer towards a follow-up hike in July). Ms Lagarde did not

engage directly with questions pointing to the potential start of a policy hiking cycle.

The plot thickened after the meeting an article from Reuters published shortly after the meeting cited ECB