LatAm Rates Strategy Who bought, who sold and who held…

Research evidence excerpt

LatAm Rates Strategy Who bought, who sold and who held…

Fixed Income ● Rates

11 June 2026

Figure 1. Monthly flows for local government debt

8 Brazil Mexico Colombia Chile

(USDbn) 64

flows 2

0 Monthly

-2

-4

-6

Jan 25 Mar 25 May 25 Jul 25 Sep 25 Nov 25 Jan 26 Mar 26

Source: HSBC, CB and MoF websites

Figure 2. Cumulative flows for LatAm since beginning of 2025

35 Brazil Mexico Colombia Chile

25 (USDbn)

flows 15

Net Inflows

5 Cumulative 0

-5 Net Outflows

-10

Dec 24 Feb 25 Apr 25 Jun 25 Aug 25 Oct 25 Dec 25 Feb 26 Apr 26

Note: Cumulative flows have been calculated using end of December 2024 as reference point.

Source: HSBC, Government websites

Sector granular details: ownership by type of holder

The preceding section examined flow dynamics among foreign-domiciled market participants. In

this section, we extend the analysis to changes in holdings by investor type, covering

both domestic and foreign-domiciled investors to provide a more complete picture.

Brazil

Drawing on Table 3 and comparing January 2025 with January 2026, financial

institutions appear to have been tactically active — consistent with positioning for policy rates

peaking/being close to a peak — as their holdings increased by 2.8 percentage points (ppt).

Their share of outstanding debt has also trended higher since January 2023. Foreign

investors likewise accounted for a larger proportion of total outstanding debt in January 2026,

with their share rising by 0.8ppt versus January 2025. Over the period analysed, their ownership

has remained broadly stable within a 9.3–10.7% range. By contrast, pension funds saw their

ownership decline to 22.7% this January, near the lower bound observed over the

sample. Insurance companies also started the year with their recorded share at a low of 3.6%