Foschini (TFG SJ) Buy: Weak macro necessitates structural fixes

Research evidence excerpt

Foschini (TFG SJ) Buy: Weak macro necessitates structural fixes

0 3.5 3.2 3.0

footprint optimisation, and structural cost reduction. We believe the business is at, or close ROE (%) 8.6 9.0 9.8 10.1

to, peak earnings pressure and expect a modest recovery from here. However, a weaker-

52-WEEK PRICE (ZAR)than-expected FY’26 result and persistent weak macro conditions across regions results in

a 16-21% cut to our DHEPS estimates. We expect 8% DHEPS growth in FY27 off a 150.00

depressed base. Lower TP to ZAR75 (from ZAR87) and maintain our Buy rating. 97.00

Digital-led growth, footprint optimisation, and structural cost reduction. In TFG 44.00

06/25 12/25 06/26

Africa, management is prioritising (1) leveraging Bash and omni-fulfilment to drive more

Target price: 75.00 High: 137.09 Low: 55.21 Current: 57.07

capital-light growth (online sales +49%, reaching 10% of sales in Q4; Bash profit

Source: Refinitiv IBES, HSBC estimates

cZAR350m pre-allocated costs), (2) closing underperforming and marginal stores (100 in

FY’27 out of 300) and a more focused brand portfolio, (3) enhancing Fintech /credit

Nick Webster*

capabilities, and (4) reducing complexity to structurally lower the cost of doing business. In Senior EM Consumer Analyst

TFG London, the priority is a Phase Eight turnaround (streamline range/price-quality, HSBC Bank plc

nick.webster@hsbc.com

repositioning), planning accuracy, cost efficiencies, and store rationalisation alongside a +44 7468 703441

shift towards owned channels as traditional third-party channels remain under pressure. In Harshul Sharma*

TFG Australia, management is focused on reviewing marginal brands (terminating the Analyst, South Africa Consumer and Industrials

HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited