BWY: Guidance confirmed, but outlook uncertain

Research evidence excerpt

BWY: Guidance confirmed, but outlook uncertain

EQUITY RESEARCH QUICK TAKE

RBC Europe Limited

Anthony Codling (Analyst)

Oliver Dyson (Analyst)

June 9, 2026

Bellway

Guidance confirmed, but outlook uncertain

LSE: BWY | GBp 1,755.00 | Sector Perform | Price Target GBp 2,050

Sentiment: Neutral

Our View

Bellway reported this morning that it is on track to meet FY2026 operating profit guidance of £320-330m; however, the outlook

beyond July 2026 remains uncertain. It is good news that guidance has been confirmed and no surprise that there is no guidance

for beyond July. The sector has been hit hard by the uncertainty caused by the situation in Iran and Bellway remains focused

on controlling those things it can. The current valuation is undemanding, but today's update is unlikely to act as a share price

catalyst.

Trading update highlights

• Private reservation rates: Bellway reported a private reservation rate of 151 per week (2026: 161 per week), equivalent to a

rate per outlet per week of 0.65 (2025: 0.67, ie. 3% lower YoY), including a 0.07 contribution from bulk sales (0.06 last year).

Therefore, on an ex-bulks basis, the 0.58 is 5% lower than the 0.61 reported last year. As a reminder, current trading ex-bulks

was flat YoY for the 7 weeks since February 1st, at 0.66. The overall sales rate (inc. social) is down 5% YoY. Bellway noted that

trading in the early part of the spring selling season showed a marked improvement compared to autumn 2025, however the

Group has seen a moderation in customer demand in April and May in response to the recent rise in mortgage rates.

• Forward orderbook: Bellway had a forward order book of 5,345 homes at £1,570m as at 29th May 2026. This is 7.2% lower in

volume terms, 4.8% lower in value terms, and implies a forward ASP 2.5% higher YoY.