Analyst Day Expectedly Light on Updates but Reaffirms Industry-Leading Growth

Research evidence excerpt

Analyst Day Expectedly Light on Updates but Reaffirms Industry-Leading Growth

2) management has already identified several upside drivers to EPS growth well into the next

decade tied to spending adjacent to large load customers. This includes ~7GWs of large customer

interest in renewables and storage with 5GWs still needed to be identified and not embedded in

the updated plan. Additionally, the company sees opportunities tied to future phases of accelerated

resilience spending as well as CCS investments as it becomes economic given its unique footprint in LA

that is adjacent to CO2 pipelines and favorable geology.

Lastly, ETR continues to be positioned to execute on incremental large load opportunities in

its pipeline given its standardized planning approach and the long lead time equipment it has

procured. This includes 10 CCCTs (~750MW per CCCT) poised for future growth with 6 secured thus far in

2026 to serve incremental large load. The CCCTs include 3 slots for 2031 COD, 5 slots for 2032 COD, and 2

slots for 2033 COD. Taken holistically, these opportunities could be accretive to the current forecast

period but largely serve to strengthen the outlook into the next decade.

Although shares of ETR trade at a ~14% premium to the group on our 2028 EPS, given the company's

best-in-class growth looking out to 2030, the shares trade at only ~6% premium on 2030 EPS, making

it one of the most attractive P/E-to-growth stories in our coverage universe. We continue to believe

that ETR is an economic development leader within the sector with incremental large load

announcements potentially driving further upside EPS and growth rate revisions that should

continue to support a premium valuation. We maintain our Outperform rating.