INGR Announces Acquisition of Tate & Lyle

Research evidence excerpt

INGR Announces Acquisition of Tate & Lyle

xpects deal to be 15+% accretive in Year 1, but accretion is difficult to Adj. EPS $10.65 $11.13 $10.80 $11.34

judge given streak of negative earnings revisions for both companies. Industry CFPS $13.78 $4.49 $6.65 $4.64

fundamentals remain challenged due to declining food/bev volumes and input cost EBIT Margin 13.7% 14.2% 13.6% 13.7%

pressures (e.g., corn, nat gas). In fact, earnings estimates for both companies have Consensus Estimates

been on a downtrend over last 6+ months, and INGR did not reiterate near-term or

2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E

long-term guidance citing lack of visibility at this point in diligence process. INGR is

paying a noticeable premium (+59% from Tate's May 13, 2026, closing price), and EPS $10.80 $11.51

although INGR is well positioned financially to make such a deal (leverage increases Valuation

to 3x, returning to 2.5x within 18 months), confidence in forward earnings estimates is 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E

lower than we would like. Potential regulatory hurdles and required divestitures further P/E 10.3x 8.9x 9.3x 8.8x

complicates accretion outlook.

EV/EBITDA 6.2x 6.1x 6.3x 5.9x

While transaction could eventually provide platform for accelerated growth, we

P/CFPS 7.2x 22.2x 15.0x 21.5x

remain sidelined given soft underlying fundamental backdrop. To be fair, we

QTR. Adj. EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4acknowledge the potential for longer-term benefits in a more constructive operating

environment. We expect INGR to return to a favorable leverage position within two 2024A $2.08 $2.87 $3.05 $2.63

years of closing, but we remain concerned that ROIC for Tate & Lyle at ~9x EV/EBITDA 2025A $2.97 $2.87 $2.75 $2.53

on declining EBITDA could underwhelm vs. other available strategic options in the 2026E $2.34a $2.71 $2.83 $2.92