GLOBAL RESEARCH ARCHIVE
Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference Day 1 Afternoon Takeaways—SPXC & CTRI
Research evidence excerpt
Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference Day 1 Afternoon Takeaways—SPXC & CTRI
Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference Day 1 Afternoon Takeaways—SPXC & CTRI Equity Research
Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks
Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI)
Investment Thesis
We think CTRI brings together a solid foundation of loyal customers engaging under multi-year master service agreements, with secular
exposure to higher electric grid investment demands and an attractive inorganic opportunity set over time. Near-term, operational
execution driving cash generation for de-leveraging is the single most important factor to driving multiple expansion, in our view. We rate
CTRI Overweight.
Target Price Valuation for CTRI
Our $37 price target is ~15x EV/EBITDA on our NTM adj EBITDA estimate, a mid-teens % discount to peers. Operational execution driving
margin expansion on strong revenue growth is key to rel val expansion.
Risks to Our Price Target and Rating for CTRI
• Shortfalls in margin expansion progress
• Execution missteps in transition to balanced lease-and-own fleet strategy
• Project execution with pursuit of additional bid work
• Customer concentration: ~50% of revenue is derived from top 10 customers and ~70% of revenue is derived from top 20 customers
• Potential for long-term MSA contracts to be terminated or not renewed
SPX Technologies, Inc. (SPXC)
We rate shares of SPXC Overweight. We expect continued earnings outgrowth vs. EEMI on MSD+ organic growth over the next two years
with continued margin expansion. Organic growth includes a LSD+ CAGR contribution from data center. In addition, we see attractive
M&A capacity to build on an already strong track record of capital deployment to deals. Steady replacement demand, capacity expansion
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