SoftwareOne-2030e targets support meaningful upside to consensus and valuation-06/09/2026

Research evidence excerpt

SoftwareOne-2030e targets support meaningful upside to consensus and valuation-06/09/2026

SoftwareOne

NEWSFLASH | 9 JUN 2026

2030e targets support meaningful upside to consensus and valuation

SWON just released financial targets in connection with the CMD later today. SWON targets 1) high-single-digit revenue

CAGR until 2030e with AI advisory as a structural growth driver, 2) reported EBITDA margins >28% in 2030e and 3) unlevered

FCF-conversion >60% vs. EBITDA. This implies 2030e revenue of CHF ~2.2bn, EBITDA of ~625m and unlevered FCF >375m.

The 2030 targets are broadly consistent with the trajectory of our above-cons estimates, but could imply some ~16/18%

upside to ‘27/28e BBG consensus EBITDA. The largest gap vs. cons sits in profitability, with cons currently only assuming

~22% ‘28e EBITDA margin. The targets also highlight the disconnect between current valuation and management’s long-

term ambition and challenge the market’s apparent discounting of long-term AI disruption risk. At the targets we calculate

SWON at ~3x ‘30e EV/EBITDA and ~20% FCF yield. The magnitude of both consensus revisions and multiple re-rating depend

on the credibility of the message later today at the CMD, but our first read is that this should be delta positive for shares.

Note that the VAR sector currently trades at ~10/9x ‘27/28e EV/EBITDA. We currently have a BUY TP CHF 14.

Targets:

SoftwareONE 2030 Targets 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e

Revenue CHFm 1,518 1,640 1,771 1,912 2,065 2,231

CCY revenue growth % 1.4% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%

Opex " (1,276) (1,295) (1,346) (1,434) (1,528) (1,606)

EBITDA " 243 344 425 478 537 625

EBITDA margin " 16.0% 21% 24% 25% 26% 28%

FCF conversion % 60% 60% 60% 60% 60%

Unlevered FCF CHFm 207 255 287 322 375

Valuation at targets