European Autos & Auto Parts: S&P GLVP forecasts – June 2026 update

Research evidence excerpt

European Autos & Auto Parts: S&P GLVP forecasts – June 2026 update

Equity Research

12 June 2026

European Autos & Auto Parts

S&P GLVP forecasts – June 2026

update

Key takes: 1) First signs of stabilization (ex China) after three European Autos & Auto Parts

consecutive rounds of sharp ME-related GLVP cuts, 2) Weak NEGATIVE

domestic demand continues to weigh on China LVP and 3) U.S.NEUTRALAutos & Mobility

updated 2026-28 GLVP forecasts still broadly consistent with European Autos & Auto Parts

Erwann Dagornecurrent BARC estimates.

+33 (0)1 4458 3664

erwann.dagorne@barclays.com

S&P Global published its June-26 GLVP update earlier today and left the global trajectory BBI, Paris

broadly intact (vs. last month update), with near-term domestic demand headwinds in

Henning Cosman

China (-360k, of which -308k in H2) partially offset by stronger YTD LVP actuals in key +44 (0)20 3134 3106

Europe (ex-Russia / +64k), North America (+49k) and Japan/Korea (+76k). As a result, S&P henning.cosman@barclays.com

now expects 2026 GLVP to decline by -2.6% yoy to 90.7m units (-199k units vs. May Barclays, UK

update). Modest revisions were also made to its 2027/28 GLVP forecasts, still expecting

Wei Jia

91.6m units / +1.0% yoy (+34k vs. last month, of which China -144k, Europe ex-Russia +78k +44 (0)20 3555 6740

and NA +54k) and 93.2m / +1.8% yoy (+86k, of which China -109k, Europe ex-Russia +80k wei.jia@barclays.com

and NA +107k) respectively. Full details on today's update are available in Figure 1. This Barclays, UK

updated round of 2026-28 GLVP forecasts still remain broadly consistent with our current

BARC estimates discussed in detail in our Another unwelcome Shock (14 April 2026) post U.S. Autos & Mobility

Middle East escalation review note. Dan Levy

+1 212 526 3212

dan.levy@barclays.com