MBX Biosciences: 52w PTH data below investor bar, but we see obesity as the larger value driver for shares & are bullish into 4Q data

Research evidence excerpt

MBX Biosciences: 52w PTH data below investor bar, but we see obesity as the larger value driver for shares & are bullish into 4Q data

Barclays | MBX Biosciences

For MBX shares, we think obesity (4Q 12 week data) is the key focus for upside from here and we

think for some this data will be a clearing event into that. We do think hypoparathyroidism is a

large market with room for many players and that weekly could be convenient, and the Ph2 data

do show consistent efficacy at 52w as 12w. However, we think ASND's data set a high bar from an

efficacy perspective, and we see this as an indication where efficacy and safety will be paramount

in prescribing. In terms of obesity, early data we think show promising signs of activity on a

blinded basis, and particularly we think PK looks compelling for monthly dosing, and tolerability

from the first MAD cohort data looks encouraging. We think obesity is a competitive space but the

market is extremely large, and a well-tolerated monthly could be competitive with more

established players.

For ASND shares, we expect continued Yorvipath growth throughout the rest of the year with

reversal of one-time 1Q factors and continued steady patient demand. With >6,300 patient

enrollments as of 1Q and ~70-90k hypoparathyroidism patients in the US, we think Yorvipath still

has meaningful room to grow. As a profitable company with now 3 approved rare endocrinology

products we think ASND is entering an important new chapter, and we think the transition to direct

listing of ordinary shares on the Nasdaq completed in April could open up more inflows. We think

recent weakness around ITC case with BMRN is not justified (especially considering the majority of

CNP/Voxzogo sales are ex-US).