AIR Global: Compounding cash flows from a structurally differentiated shisha franchise; initiate at OW, PT $9

Research evidence excerpt

AIR Global: Compounding cash flows from a structurally differentiated shisha franchise; initiate at OW, PT $9

Equity Research

European Consumer Staples

12 June 2026

AIR Global

Compounding cash flows from a

structurally differentiated shisha Initiating Coverage

AIIR.OQ/AIIR OVERWEIGHTfranchise; initiate at OW, PT $9

from Not Rated

AIR is a category leader in shisha molasses, with structurally European Consumer NEUTRAL Staples

Unchangedresilient volumes vs. other tobacco categories. We like its

pricing power and high cash conversion. We expect it to grow Price Target USD 9.00 from N/A

revenues at c4%, EBITDA c7% and EPS low-teens over the Price (11-Jun-26) USD 7.00

Potential Upside/Downside +28.6%next few years. Attractive at c9% FCF yield.

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

AIR’s core shisha business is a rare tobacco asset: category leadership (global volume

Market Cap (USD mn) 1122

market share of c36% to 44%), structurally resilient volumes relative to other tobacco

Shares Outstanding (mn) 160.39

categories, strong pricing power, high cash conversion and manageable regulation. The

Free Float (%) 99.37

core shisha business supports compounding cash flows, while providing the funding base

52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) N/A

for new growth categories. AIR does not just sell nicotine – it monetises brand, flavour and

Dividend Yield (%) N/A

ritual, which materially improves the long-term risk-reward profile relative to traditional

Return on Equity TTM (%) N/A

tobacco categories, in our view. We expect AIR to sustainably grow revenues

Current BVPS (USD) N/A

annually by c4%, EBITDA by c7% and EPS by a low-teens percentage over the next few Source: Bloomberg

years. We think AIR warrants a multiple higher than that of cigarette/cigars-only