Equity Market Review: Not priced for peace

Research evidence excerpt

Equity Market Review: Not priced for peace

Equity Research

Equity Strategy

12 June 2026

Equity Market Review

Not priced for peace

A US-Iran deal, if confirmed, would remove a major macro tail

risk and clear the way for further broadening/rotation. This

would likely benefit Europe and cyclical laggards the most, European Equity Strategy

particularly the uncrowded consumer plays like Luxury. The Emmanuel+44 (0)20 3134Cau,0475CFA

emmanuel.cau@barclays.comWorld cup could also provide a tactical lift to the space.

Barclays, UK

Magesh Kumar Chandrasekaran, CFA

+44 (0)20 3134 5983

magesh.kumarchandrasekaran@barclays.comWeekly market commentary

Not priced for peace. The latest pull-back is unlikely to  Equity Market Review

have come as a big surprise to many given the growing Emmanuel Makonga

Our weekly pack contains key +44 (0)20 7773 2593

number of yellow flags recently (Frothy edges, solid core – charts on performance valuation emmanuel.makonga@barclays.com

June Chart Pack, 3 Jun). Some reality check and and technicals Barclays, UK

positioning reset is actually healthy in our view, with froth

in AI/Semis space quickly removed already. There is still an Arihanth Bohra Jain

+91 (0)22 6175 1406eventful macro calendar ahead that may keep markets on edge into the tricky summer

arihanth.bohrajain@barclays.com

seasonality. The upcoming FOMC meeting next week, chaired by Warsh for the first time, will be Barclays, UK

crucial given US yields are near the important 4.5% threshold. Meanwhile, a busy pipeline of

mega IPOs will test the equity market's ability to absorb heavy supply. However, if the latest

headlines about US and Iran nearing a deal are confirmed (we have been there before) and a

deal is indeed sealed, this would remove a major tail risk for markets and give legs to the