Mexico Consumer: Made in North America - Mexico at the Center of USMCA 2.0

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico Consumer: Made in North America - Mexico at the Center of USMCA 2.0

Barclays | Mexico Consumer

Amid uncertainty on timeline and final outcome, this backdrop is ultimately likely to create

moderate but persistent cost pressure across the sector. But it would ultimately preserve the

core architecture of North American trade integration. All in all, we continue to see trade

between Mexico and the US strong and growing in the foreseeable future.

Equity Research View

For Mexico consumer companies, the primary impact is still more likely to come through macro

channels than direct trade barriers, with trade-policy uncertainty historically placing downward

pressure on the Mexican peso, raising the cost of USD-denominated inputs and contributing to

imported input inflation. An important distinction is that some of the policy uncertainty around

North American trade now reflects measures and disputes that sit outside the treaty text itself,

meaning the market backdrop can be more volatile than the formal legal mechanics of the

review alone would suggest.

Companies with direct U.S. revenue exposure, such as Becle and Gruma, face the clearest tariff-

linked risks. For most Mexico consumer companies, however, the impact is indirect, reflecting

currency volatility, higher costs for commodities, packaging materials, and imported

merchandise, and a more cautious investment and demand backdrop. Under downside

scenarios, discretionary retailers and businesses with heavier imported merchandise exposure

appear most vulnerable, while staple-oriented companies with stronger pricing power and

hedging capabilities should be better positioned.

What to watch into the review process this summer

• U.S.-Mexico bilateral technical discussions in three rounds. The first one was already on May