European Airlines: Europe - Asia / Africa fare strength fades

Research evidence excerpt

European Airlines: Europe - Asia / Africa fare strength fades

Equity Research

European Transportation

12 June 2026

European Airlines

Europe - Asia / Africa fare strength

fades

We analyse Asian fare strength for European airlines. Whilst European Transportation

April showed extraordinary gains, one month forward fare NEUTRAL

growth has halved from May to June, whilst three-month European Transportation

Andrew Lobbenberg

forward fare growth fades to flat by August. Gulf carrier +44 (0)20 3555 0639

capacity is rapidly approaching pre-conflict levels. andrew.lobbenberg@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

Rahul Singh

Scepticism about Asian revenue windfalls underpins our UW ratings on Lufthansa, AF-KLM and

+91 (0)22 6175 2529

Finnair, and our catalyst alert on Lufthansa, Gulf carrier fare sales a potential negative – June/ rahul.xb.singh@barclays.com

July, reflects our view that the Asian unit revenue windfalls being enjoyed by European flag Barclays, UK

carriers will not endure. The March shutdown of Gulf carriers caused traffic flows that usually

Marco Limite

transit the Gulf to rebook on European and Asian airlines. Screen scraping data shows that unit +39 (0)2 6372 2582

revenues in April were extremely strong for European airlines to Asia, rising 30-60% on average marco.limite@barclays.com

for the month. Load factors were also supportive. We also show trading to Southern Africa BBI, Milan

routes which show similar, though less extreme, trends.

Emilie Fung

+44 (0)20 3555 2335Fare strength fades: Our analysis of forward fares shows that one-month forward fares peaked

emilie.fung@barclays.com

in May and that June fare growth was half that of May. Three-month forward fare growth peaked

for June and by August had faded to flat fares. We expect the average fare strength to fade fast.