Barry Callebaut: Look for +3.5% Q3 volume

Research evidence excerpt

Barry Callebaut: Look for +3.5% Q3 volume

outlook, our earnings revisions are slightly negative at the net level. We

reduce FY EPS by c.1%, reflecting higher assumed finance costs, now closer to company Price Performance Exchange-SWX

guidance at around CHF320m. At the operating level, we remain broadly aligned with prior 52 Week range CHF 1538.00-786.00

expectations and continue to model a mid-teens EBIT decline in constant FX, consistent with

April guidance. This reflects a combination of finance cost pass back, targeted operational

reinvestment to rebuild service levels and execution, alongside ongoing profitability pressure in

Gourmet, which management continues to characterise as temporary in nature. While stronger

volumes support some EBIT improvement into H2, this is more than offset by the assumed

higher interest burden, delaying the translation of operational recovery into bottom-line

growth. Source: IDC

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FY27 visibility limited: We make only limited changes to FY27, where the investment case

continues to rely on a sharp rebound in profitability. Recent commentary alongside the Focus for

European Consumer Staples

Growth plan suggested EBIT growth exceeding the 1–3% volume guide and PBT growth above

Alex Sloane

the mid-term low-teens algorithm, supported by a step-down in finance costs. We nudge up our +44 (0)20 3555 0645

finance cost assumptions modestly but leave our PBT broadly unchanged, still reflecting a alexander.sloane@barclays.com

strong recovery. Implicitly, this assumes a normalisation in Gourmet profitability and clean Barclays, UK

operational execution. However, the lack of granularity around the pace and drivers of Gourmet

Setu Sharda

+ 91 (0)22 6175 1934

Barclays Capital Inc.