European Economic Comment "ECB: Sticking to our call of a pause in July" Cluse

Research evidence excerpt

European Economic Comment "ECB: Sticking to our call of a pause in July" Cluse

Global Research

11 June 2026ab

European Economic Comment Economics

Europe including UKECB: Sticking to our call of a pause in July

Reinhard Cluse

Economist

Key conclusions from the ECB press conference reinhard.cluse@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 6722

As firmly expected, the ECB hiked the depo rate by 25bps to 2.25% today. We drew the

following key conclusions from the press conference: First, the decision to hike rates was Anna Titareva

Economistunanimous and seen by the Governing Council as comprehensively justified by the

anna.titareva@ubs.com

ECB new macro baseline forecast as well as the three alternative scenarios. Second, we +44-20-7568 5083

cannot conclude that today's hike was a "one and done", we think at least one more

hike will follow. Third, we cannot conclude that the next hike will definitely come already Reinout De Bock

Strategist

in the meeting on 23 July (although we cannot rule it out either). Fourth, as regards the

reinout.de-bock@ubs.com

question whether the ECB will deliver another 25bps or 50bps of rate hikes - the market +44-20-7567 0152

is currently pricing another 42.7bps until year-end - we did not receive firm signals today.

Franziska Fischer

We expect only one more hike, in September

franziska.fischer@ubs.com

Our own baseline forecast remains that the ECB will pause at the July meeting, but then +41-44-239 2054

hike rates by another 25bps to 2.5% in September. However, we will follow data

Felix Huefner

carefully ahead of the July meeting, particularly with regards to data that might change Economist

the ECB's assessment on the emergence of pro-inflationary second round effects - see felix.huefner@ubs.com

our heatmap in Figure 3.