US Daily Data Recap "Core PCE tracking at 0.35%, claims rise" Wilcox

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Data Recap "Core PCE tracking at 0.35%, claims rise" Wilcox

Global Research

11 June 2026ab

US Daily Data Recap Economics

AmericasCore PCE tracking at 0.35%, claims rise

Amanda Wilcox

Economist

Today's PPI data pushed up our translation of the May core PCE price increase from amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3899

0.27% yesterday following the release CPI to 0.35% today. The 0.35% is even a bit

above the 0.32% that we had pencilled in before yesterday's CPI. That 0.35% increase, Jonathan Pingle

combined with projected small upward revisions to January and February, would put 12- Economist

month core PCE price inflation at 3.44% — roughly where it was in October 2023 and jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2225

well above the post-pandemic low of 2.61% in April of last year.

Alan Detmeister

The headline PPI rose 1.1% in May, lifting the 12-month headline PPI inflation rate to alan.detmeister@ubs.com

6.4%, driven by another surge in energy prices. The core PPI rose 0.8% over the month +1-212-713 1222

in May and 5.1% over the year. Beyond energy, underlying services inflation outside of

Abigail Watttrade and transportation firmed, while capital goods inflation remained steady rather

than accelerating. abigail.watt@ubs.com

+1-212-882 6929

Initial claims rose modestly to 229K in the week ending June 6, lifting the 4-week Jalen Nichols

moving average to 219K, its highest since late February, but still low for the time of year Economist

and -19K below the same period last year. Continuing claims rose 24K to 1795K off a jalen.nichols@ubs.com

downwardly revised base in the week ending May 30. Despite some holiday-related +1-212-882 6905

volatility and a slight rise in continuing claims, both initial and continuing claims remain