Anglo American "Anglo-Teck: Copper growth and Self-help" (Buy) Allsop

Research evidence excerpt

Anglo American "Anglo-Teck: Copper growth and Self-help" (Buy) Allsop

ons.

consolidate after the sharp increase so far in 2026 with macro risks elevated, demand 12/26E 206.21 199.35 -3 180.70

signals mixed, smelter output holding up & exchange inventories up. 12/27E 308.45 309.45 0 241.80

12/28E 295.95 297.96 1 248.50

Anglo-Teck: Material copper growth over next 5yrs from world-class assets

Myles AllsopKey catalysts near term include: 1) approval of the merger by Chinese regulators

Analyst

(expected shortly with limited concessions); 2) decision by TSX on index inclusion of myles.allsop@ubs.com

Anglo-Teck (net buying); 3) potential sale of De Beers with the process now reported to +44-20-7568 1693

be advanced; 4) QB-C JV to be agreed with GLEN/ partners (expected in 1H27) with

Daniel Majorsynergies materially higher than $1.4bn due to copper price. Anglo reports 2Q

production on 23-Jul and 1H results on 30-Jul; visibility is currently limited on volume daniel.major@ubs.com

trends though we expect Anglo to lift unit cost guidance for Copper & Iron ore (given +44-20-7568 3472

inflationary pressures, partly offset by weaker ZAR). Teck reports 2Q results on 23-Jul; we

Amy Yi Li

see potential for QB guidance to be lifted after strong 1Q.

amy-yi.li@ubs.com

Valuation: Buy; target based on 9x EV/EBITDA at discount to key copper peers +44-20-7568 2064

We expect Anglo to rerate over the next 12mths as mgmt delivers synergies from the

agreed Teck merger and the stock repositions as a high-quality copper equity (from a

diversified miner). Our price target of £45/sh is based on an EV/EBITDA multiple to 9x EV/

EBITDA, at a discount to ANTO & SCCO.

Highlights (US$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 30,656 27,354 18,533 20,050 28,356 27,544 29,144 30,328