Bucher "CEMA tracker - sequentially down into recessionary territory" (Neutral)

Research evidence excerpt

Bucher "CEMA tracker - sequentially down into recessionary territory" (Neutral)

op line and operating income are linked, either

12/26E 17.70 19.01

directly or indirectly, to the agriculture market.

12/27E 17.91 20.95

12/28E 18.40 22.64

Bucher’s stock price reflects an even more negative backdrop

Changes (y/y) in Bucher’s stock price historically saw a relatively strong correlation with Sebastian Vogel, CFA

y/y movements in the CEMA survey. Assuming this relationship remains ongoing, we Analyst

sebastian.vogel@ubs.comexpect that Bucher’s current stock price reflects an even more conservative outlook

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compared to the latest CEMA survey results. Moreover, Bucher’s historic stock price

changes also saw a robust correlation with global manufacturing PMIs. However, Patrick Rafaisz, CFA, FRM

Bucher's recent share price appears to have diverged from the latest PMI data and Analyst

patrick.rafaisz@ubs.com

suggests a more muted outlook.

+41-44-239 90 66

Valuation: DCF-derived PT of CHF338/conclusion

We derive our PT of CHF338/share using a DCF. Our long-term assumptions for terminal

growth rate/WACC remain at 2.0%/7.8%, respectively. In our view, the continued

deterioration in the CEMA Business Barometer underscores an increasingly negative

outlook for European agricultural machinery producers like Bucher's Kuhn Goup.

Highlights (CHFm) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 3,575 3,156 2,914 2,856 2,909 2,943 3,008 3,088

EBIT (UBS) 424 283 238 218 221 227 237 249

Net earnings (UBS) 352 227 200 176 178 183 192 202

EPS (UBS, diluted) (CHF) 34.38 22.15 19.75 17.70 17.91 18.40 19.29 20.30

DPS (net) (CHF) 13.50 11.00 11.00 8.87 8.98 9.22 9.67 10.17

Net (debt) / cash 396 402 498 496 557 632 696 758