US Steel Sector "Flat-rolled fundamentals tight; Imports/new supply cap ..."

Research evidence excerpt

US Steel Sector "Flat-rolled fundamentals tight; Imports/new supply cap ..."

Global Research

11 June 2026ab

US Steel Sector Equities

AmericasFlat-rolled fundamentals tight; Imports/new

supply cap upside in 2H Basic Materials

Andrew Jones

Analyst

andrew-i.jones@ubs.com

On 10 June, we hosted a steel industry update call with CRU's Principal Steel Analyst, +44-20-7901 6545

Josh Spoores. Topics included: imports, demand, inventories, cost curve, supply &

Alex Stansbury, CFA

pricing. See replay / transcript here.

alex.stansbury@ubs.com

Executive Summary: CRU’s message was constructive near term, with flat-rolled +1-212-882 0097

fundamentals still tight as lean inventories and sharply reduced imports continue to Zenande Meyiwa

support higher prices and longer lead times. However, import economics improving, Analyst

outages rolling off and new supply gradually returning suggest flat-rolled pricing should zenande.meyiwa@ubs.com

begin to normalize in late 3Q/4Q. +44-20-7567 5474

Myles Allsop

Key Topics: Analyst

Imports: The clearest takeaway from the call is that the US flat-rolled market myles.allsop@ubs.com

remains short of supply, with imports still materially below prior levels and acting +44-20-7568 1693

as the main driver of tightness. CRU estimates the market is effectively missing George Eadie

~4mt of annualized import supply versus prior run-rates. While 50% Section 232 Analyst

tariffs have shut out many traditional source countries, import economics are george.eadie@ubs.com

beginning to work again, especially for Gulf Coast deliveries, and buyers appear +1-646-996 4596

increasingly willing to re-enter the offshore market as domestic lead times extend Ethan Hong

and futures markets allow some hedging of price risk. CRU would expect imports Associate Analyst