Electrolux AB "Q2 preview: pricing lag and tariff drag" (Neutral) Huynh

Research evidence excerpt

Electrolux AB "Q2 preview: pricing lag and tariff drag" (Neutral) Huynh

Electrolux AB UBS Research

estimate changes

We update our FY26E-FY28E estimates to reflect a tougher near-term operating

backdrop (with higher commodities and logistics costs), partly offset by slightly higher

revenue from a more positive pricing picture in North America and continued self-help.

Our FY26E revenue (inc. Midea consolidation) moves up 0.3% to SEK132.4bn, while adj

EBIT falls 12% to SEK3.7bn and EPS falls 25% to SEK1.76, mainly reflecting weaker

North America, higher logistics/raw material/tariff headwinds and a more cautious H2

phasing of price recovery. This is consistent with Electrolux’s Q1 messaging that North

America was the key earnings drag, with Q1 NA organic sales down 11.6% and EBIT at

SEK-0.9bn, while group cost efficiency remained on track with cSEK0.7bn delivered in

Q1 against the FY26 SEK3.5-4.0bn target.

We leave FY27E/FY28E EBIT broadly unchanged at SEK6.2bn/SEK7.3bn (-2%/flat), as

the softer FY26 base and external cost headwinds are partly offset by the ongoing cost-

efficiency programme, incremental Midea partnership benefits and organisational/

footprint optimisation. As previously discussed, Midea partnership should provide only a

small contribution in 2026, a more meaningful step-up in 2027 and fuller benefit in

2028, with cSEK0.6bn North America cost savings by year three and additional group

savings targeted across the organisation. The changes results in FY26-FY28E EPS

changes of -25%/-4%/-1%. The estimated minority leakage from the consolidated

Midea structures and the rights issue dilution are already incorporated in the model.

For Q2’26E, we forecast group sales of SEK30.3bn and adj EBIT of SEK566m, implying a

1.9% margin.