Global Oil and Gas "Hormuz tracker: day 103" Patricot

Research evidence excerpt

Global Oil and Gas "Hormuz tracker: day 103" Patricot

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Global Oil and Gas Equities

GlobalHormuz tracker: day 103

Oil Companies, Major

Henri Patricot, CFA

Tensions continue to rise; President Trump claims significant increase in flows Analyst

US President Donald Trump has threatened further strikes on Iran today, saying the henri.patricot@ubs.com

country would be hit "hard tonight" (link). Yesterday, the President said that 100M bbls +33-14-888 3033

had transited via Hormuz in recent weeks, supported by the US (link). This would equate Nayoung Kim

to ~2.5Mb/d. This is roughly twice as much as the volumes we have captured in our Analyst

tracker since early May and slightly above our estimates for missed dark transits. The nayoung.kim@ubs.com

comment is supported by the recent increase in crude loadings inside the Gulf, now up +44-20-7568 4010

close to 2Mb/d in June vs. Apr-May average, albeit over a shorter period of time. The Joshua Stone

reported greater use of ship to ship transfers just outside the Strait likely complicates Analyst

tracking (link). The US helicopter that was hit on Monday was reportedly part of the joshua.stone@ubs.com

operation. Meanwhile, another vessel was hit in the Strait today (link). +44-20-7901 5588

Josh Silverstein

No visible improvement in oil & gas flows Analyst

The latest UBS Evidence Lab data (> Access Dataset) does not show an improvement in josh.silverstein@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3513

oil & gas flows via the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, with just one LNG carrier exiting

the Gulf. The June average is still in line with April-May at ~3 and still significantly lower Tom Allen

than February's daily average of nearly 50 crossings. On a volume basis, exports were Analyst