N.A. Chems & Pkg’g "Fun with Fertilizers" Beaumont

Research evidence excerpt

N.A. Chems & Pkg’g "Fun with Fertilizers" Beaumont

Global Research

11 June 2026ab

N.A. Chems & Pkg’g Equities

North AmericaFun with Fertilizers

Chemicals, Commodity

Lucas Beaumont

REMINDER: The Extel survey is underway. If we helped you have 'Fun with Analyst

Fertilizers' this year we would greatly appreciate your support with a 5-star lucas.beaumont@ubs.com

rating for UBS in the "Chemicals" & "Paper & Packaging" categories. Click here +1-212-713 4809

to vote. Joshua Spector, CFA

Analyst

Fun with Fertilizers Highlights joshua.spector@ubs.com

+1-212-713 6188

Review of NPK pricing & updated outlook: We review the latest NPK pricing

trends below, within we provide our current price deck (Figure 1) and comparison Nicole Grueneberg

Associate Analyst of estimates vs. cons. (Figure 2), as well as a comp table for UBS’ Fertilizer/Ag

nicole.grueneberg@ubs.com

coverage (3). We previously walked through our post 1Q pricing revisions and +1-212-713-2469

updated outlook for 2026 and the medium term here (link).

Christopher Perrella

Nitrogen: QTD pricing trends have been generally negative for NTR, CF, and LXU Analyst

relative to our 2Q estimates. Ammonia pricing looks to come in slightly below christopher.perrella@ubs.com

UBSe, and urea pricing looks to come in at least ~$90/MT below our prior +1-212-713 1443

estimates. Meanwhile, UAN pricing has exceeded our expectations so far and is Anojja Shah

expected to come in at least ~$25/MT above our estimates. Urea has declined Analyst

more sharply as the market has moved past peak seasonal tightness. This raises the anojja.shah@ubs.com

possibility of further reductions heading into 3Q, as demand softens in +1-312-525 4310

anticipation of further pricing declines. We continue to believe structurally tight James Cannon