U.S. REITs "The Earliest 2027 REITs Preview" Goldsmith

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. REITs "The Earliest 2027 REITs Preview" Goldsmith

r Apartment to

outperform as supply pressure moderates, they lap easier comparisons, and relative

valuations remain near 5-yr lows. We think Industrial can continue to inflect with

improving demand and supply comes down. We see a more balanced risk/reward in

2027 for Retail and Triple Net Lease REITs where earnings growth should be flattish and

more limited valuation upside given recent performance. In contrast, we remain

cautious on Self Storage, Cold Storage, and Office, where recent multiple expansion

appears disconnected from underlying fundamentals and near-term supply and demand

dynamics remain less supportive.

Moving pieces in the macro (Iran Conflict, US Election): We see two primary

macro swing factors heading into 2027: the trajectory of the Iran conflict and the

outcome of the U.S. election cycle. On the Iran conflict, clarity on timing and

resolution would be a meaningful release valve for the global economy. Notably,

this would reduce pressure on consumers and alleviate volatility across key input

costs (including energy, fertilizer, and construction materials). A credible path to

de-escalation should support a more stable macro backdrop, with lower gas prices

acting as an immediate tailwind to consumer confidence. In parallel, the 2026

election could usher in a shift away from single-party control. Current polling

points to a divided government, with Republicans narrowly favored in the Senate

and the House remaining competitive. In our view, a divided government would

likely dampen policy volatility and contribute to a more predictable operating

environment for corporates and investors. Finally, while corporates have largely

adapted to the current tariff regime, any incremental easing would provide an